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Atlanta FalconsJahan Dotson
#4 · WR · 5' 11" · 184 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 42.1 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJahan Dotson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Dotson and the rest of the Falcons offense were held in check for the majority of Sunday's loss. The wide receiver did provide Atlanta's biggest highlight play of the day, connecting with quarterback Michael Penix for a 76-yard gain on the team's final possession of the day in the fourth quarter. Dotson's 95 yards were a season high, and he has now reeled in 14 of 31 targets for 337 yards and two touchdowns over eight contests to open the 2026 regular season.
Verdict
vs 36.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
47.2 REC YDS(×0.94 context)
L5 59.2 · L10 42.1 · med 36.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 11.0 · ceil 73.8
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 36.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 36.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — vs KC
Nov 15, 2026
31stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
KC allows 35.2 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 23 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Jahan Dotson has gone over 36.5 REC YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 31st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (35.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 33.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.