Atlanta Falcons

Jahan Dotson Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jahan Dotson has gone over 6 FS in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Penn State
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 7.5 FS · PrizePicks line

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OutJahan Dotson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Dotson and the rest of the Falcons offense were held in check for the majority of Sunday's loss. The wide receiver did provide Atlanta's biggest highlight play of the day, connecting with quarterback Michael Penix for a 76-yard gain on the team's final possession of the day in the fourth quarter. Dotson's 95 yards were a season high, and he has now reeled in 14 of 31 targets for 337 yards and two touchdowns over eight contests to open the 2026 regular season.

Verdict

vs 6 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral

Projection vs line64supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

8.9 FS(×1.07 context)

L5 10.3 · L10 7.5 · med 5.3

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 2.4 · ceil 12.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 8 games — FS per game vs. line 6.0. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 6 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days57%4/7Low

Next matchup — vs CIN

Nov 8, 2026

22ndof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

CIN allows 8.6 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 25 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 8 games, Jahan Dotson has gone over 6 FS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CIN has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 22nd-most FS of 32 teams (8.6 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.