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Tampa Bay BuccaneersJalen McMillan
#11 · WR · 6' 1" · 192 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Jan 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Washington
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 64.5 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJalen McMillan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Bucs continued to shake up their wide receiver room by selecting Hurst with the 84th overall pick last Friday. Over the offseason, the team has subtracted Mike Evans, who signed with the 49ers in free agency, and added Hurst to a group that still includes Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, McMillan and Tez Johnson. McMillan missed most of last season with a neck injury before making his debut in Week 15. In four regular-season games, McMillan produced a respectable 12-178-0 line on 15 targets. Egbuka faded fast after a big first half of the campaign, and Godwin didn't look anything like his old self after breaking his ankle in 2024. How this depth chart shakes out during training camp and the preseason will be something to watch for an offense that likes to throw the football.
Verdict
vs 64.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
66.8 REC YDS
L5 64.5 · L10 64.5 · med 64.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 34.8 · ceil 94.2
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 64.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 |
Situational splits
Over 64.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%1/1Low
Last matchup — @ MIA
Dec 28, 2025
29thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
MIA allows 37.6 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 54 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 2 games, Jalen McMillan has gone over 64.5 REC YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 29th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.6 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 49.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.