Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jalen McMillan Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jalen McMillan has gone over 5 FS in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Washington
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 11.0 FS · PrizePicks line

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OutJalen McMillan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The good news is that McMillan was able to suit up after dealing with a knee injury that caused him to be inactive Week 1 against Cincinnati. It was anticipated that the 24-year-old would be on a snap count upon his return, and that's exactly how things played out, with McMillan's meager seven offensive snaps trailing all of fellow wideouts Emeka Egbuka (56), Chris Godwin (56), Ted Hurst (48) and Tez Johnson (19). McMillan figures to gradually ramp up his playing time in the weeks to come, though he could again be held back enough Week 3 versus Minnesota to make him a poor option in fantasy.

Verdict

vs 5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 73% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line73supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

10.4 FS(×0.92 context)

L5 11.0 · L10 11.0 · med 11.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 6.6 · ceil 15.4

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	2/2
	100%	2/2
	50%	1/2
5Current	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2

Last 2 games — FS per game vs. line 5.0. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Next matchup — vs MIN

Sep 27, 2026

7thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

MIN allows 12.6 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 2 games, Jalen McMillan has gone over 5 FS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIN has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 7th-most FS of 32 teams (12.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.