New York Giants

Jameis Winston Completions

Stats updated: Sep 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jameis Winston has gone over 18.5 CMP in 1 of his last 3 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Florida State
Experience: 13 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCompletions · season avg 16.0 CMP · PrizePicks line

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OutJameis Winston isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

After exiting in the first quarter Monday, Dart received a preliminary diagnosis of a sprained MCL, an injury that typically entails a multi-week absence but typically isn't season-ending. Unfortunately for Dart, follow-up tests Tuesday seemingly revealed additional damage to his knee that could potentially lead to season-ending surgery. Dart will likely receive additional medical opinions before a treatment plan and recovery timeline is established, but with an extended absence on tap, the door is open for Winston to direct the New York offense beginning with Sunday's game versus Tennessee. Winston averaged a healthy 8.6 yards per attempt between two starts and one brief appearance off the bench with the Giants a season ago, but he was highly inefficient in relief of Dart in his 2026 debut Monday, completing just 11 of 27 passes for 111 yards, no touchdowns and an interception.

Verdict

vs 18.5 CMPCompletions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 78% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it

Projection vs line78supports it

Consistency63supports it

Projection

15.3 CMP(×0.98 context)

L5 16.0 · L10 16.0 · med 18.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 13.8 · ceil 18.6

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 53 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Last 103 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Last 203 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Season3 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Last 3 games — CMP per game vs. line 18.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 18.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/2Low

Next matchup — vs TEN

Sep 27, 2026

10thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks

TEN allows 22.5 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 3 games, Jameis Winston has gone over 18.5 CMP 1 of 3 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. TEN has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 10th-most CMP of 32 teams (22.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 3.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.