New York Giants

Jameis Winston Rushing Yards

Stats updated: Sep 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jameis Winston has gone over 5.5 RUSH YDS in 2 of his last 3 decided games (67%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Florida State
Experience: 13 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing Yards · season avg 8.0 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks line

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OutJameis Winston isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

After exiting in the first quarter Monday, Dart received a preliminary diagnosis of a sprained MCL, an injury that typically entails a multi-week absence but typically isn't season-ending. Unfortunately for Dart, follow-up tests Tuesday seemingly revealed additional damage to his knee that could potentially lead to season-ending surgery. Dart will likely receive additional medical opinions before a treatment plan and recovery timeline is established, but with an extended absence on tap, the door is open for Winston to direct the New York offense beginning with Sunday's game versus Tennessee. Winston averaged a healthy 8.6 yards per attempt between two starts and one brief appearance off the bench with the Giants a season ago, but he was highly inefficient in relief of Dart in his 2026 debut Monday, completing just 11 of 27 passes for 111 yards, no touchdowns and an interception.

Verdict

vs 5.5 RUSH YDSRushing Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it

Projection vs line65supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

7.4 RUSH YDS(×0.98 context)

L5 8.0 · L10 8.0 · med 10.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 4.6 · ceil 11.8

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 53 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Last 103 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Last 203 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Season3 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)

RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	67%	2/3
	67%	2/3
	67%	2/3
5.5Current	67%	2/3
	67%	2/3
	67%	2/3
	67%	2/3

Last 3 games — RUSH YDS per game vs. line 5.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 5.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%1/2Low

Next matchup — vs TEN

Sep 27, 2026

20thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks

TEN allows 11.5 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 3 games, Jameis Winston has gone over 5.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. TEN has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 20th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (11.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.