Loading…
Dallas CowboysJavonte Williams Receptions
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Javonte Williams has gone over 2.5 REC in 3 of his last 8 decided games (38%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- North Carolina
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 2.5 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJavonte Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Williams turned in one of his more efficient performances against an inconsistent Colts defense, ultimately managing his second 100-yard effort of the season. Williams continued to serve as a prolific supplier of touchdowns as well, recording his ninth rushing score of the campaign on a one-yard run with 1:08 remaining to seal the victory for Dallas. Williams' week-to-week yardage production has fluctuated a fair amount, but his high-volume role and trusted red-zone presence keeps him a must-play despite a tough Week 10 home matchup against the 49ers next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 2.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)89supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
2.4 REC(×1.22 context)
L5 2.0 · L10 2.5 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.4 · ceil 4.2
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 108 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Last 208 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Season8 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 7/8 | ||
| 75% | 6/8 | ||
| 2.5Current | 38% | 3/8 | |
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days29%2/7Low
Next matchup — vs SF
Nov 15, 2026
1stof 32 in REC allowed to running backs
SF allows 3.2 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Javonte Williams has gone over 2.5 REC 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. SF has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 1st-most REC of 32 teams (3.2 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 2.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 44.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 55.1%
Best Over
DraftKings+112
-4.7% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-140
-5.6% EV
Model vs market (over)-0.4%
Our model puts the over at 44.5% vs the market's no-vig 44.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (2.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.
More Javonte Williams research
Javonte Williams — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Williams Carries→
Carries hit rates and trends.
Williams Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Williams Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Williams Receiving Yards→
Receiving Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.