Dallas Cowboys

Javonte Williams Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Javonte Williams has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 6 of his last 8 decided games (75%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: North Carolina
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 1.0 RUSH TD · our line

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OutJavonte Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Williams turned in one of his more efficient performances against an inconsistent Colts defense, ultimately managing his second 100-yard effort of the season. Williams continued to serve as a prolific supplier of touchdowns as well, recording his ninth rushing score of the campaign on a one-yard run with 1:08 remaining to seal the victory for Dallas. Williams' week-to-week yardage production has fluctuated a fair amount, but his high-volume role and trusted red-zone presence keeps him a must-play despite a tough Week 10 home matchup against the 49ers next Sunday.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line66supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

0.9 RUSH TD(×1.04 context)

L5 1.2 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.4 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 108 games

75%over

6 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 41%–93%

Last 208 games

75%over

6 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 41%–93%

Season8 games

75%over

6 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 41%–93%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	75%	6/8
	13%	1/8
	13%	1/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away100%4/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days71%5/7Low

Next matchup — vs SF

Nov 15, 2026

29thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

SF allows 0.1 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 14 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 8 games, Javonte Williams has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 6 of 8 decided times (75%) — versus 75% across the full season. SF has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 29th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.1 per game). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 75%.