Seattle Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gone over 1.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 7 decided games (29%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ohio State
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 1.3 REC TD · our line

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OutJaxon Smith-Njigba isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Smith-Njigba was in his usual position of leading the Seahawks across the board in receptions, receiving yards and targets, and he crossed the 100-yard mark for the seventh time in eight games this season with a pair of catches on Seattle's final drive of the night. His target total also was his sixth double-digit tally of the campaign, and the absence of Rashid Shaheed (knee) helped reinforce JSN's downfield role even further. Smith-Njigba now will head into a Week 9 home matchup against the Cardinals on Sunday just 15 yards short of his third consecutive 1,000-yard campaign and only a touchdown shy of tying the career-high 10 he recorded over 17 regular-season games last season.

Verdict

vs 1.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line62supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

1.3 REC TD(×1.17 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 1.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 107 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Last 207 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Season7 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	86%	6/7
1.5Current	29%	2/7
	14%	1/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — REC TD per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/4Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%2/6Low

Next matchup — vs ARI

Nov 8, 2026

2ndof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

ARI allows 0.4 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 25 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 7 games, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gone over 1.5 REC TD 2 of 7 decided times (29%) — versus 29% across the full season. ARI has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 2nd-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.4 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.