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Seattle SeahawksJaxon Smith-Njigba Targets
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gone over 10.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 10.3 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJaxon Smith-Njigba isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Smith-Njigba started off his day with a bang, connecting with Drew Lock for an 82-yard touchdown on Seattle's opening possession of the game. The wide receiver later added a seven-yard score in the third quarter before notching a third touchdown in the final period, scoring from 12 yards out to cap off his day. Smith-Njigba has now caught 17 of 22 targets for 277 yards and four touchdowns over two contests to open the 2026 campaign, and he'll have a strong chance to continue his hot start Week 3 against Washington's feeble secondary.
Verdict
vs 10.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)57neutral
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency64supports it
Projection
11.3 TGT(×1.07 context)
L5 10.4 · L10 10.6 · med 10.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 9.0 · ceil 12.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2017 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Season17 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 15/17 | ||
| 82% | 14/17 | ||
| 65% | 11/17 | ||
| 10.5Current | 47% | 8/17 | |
| 35% | 6/17 | ||
| 18% | 3/17 | ||
| 6% | 1/17 |
Situational splits
Over 10.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%8/16Medium
Next matchup — @ WSH
Sep 27, 2026
12thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
WSH allows 6.2 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gone over 10.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 47% across the full season. WSH has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 12th-most TGT of 32 teams (6.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.
More Jaxon Smith-Njigba research
Jaxon Smith-Njigba — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Smith-Njigba Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Smith-Njigba Receiving TDs→
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Smith-Njigba Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.