Washington Commanders

Jerome Ford Receptions

Stats updated: Dec 7, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jerome Ford has gone over 2.5 REC in 4 of his last 9 decided games (44%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Cincinnati
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 2.8 REC · our line

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OutJerome Ford isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, on the other hand, has been absent from recent practices with a soft-tissue injury. It sounds like Rachaad White has been getting a lot of the first-team snaps, but Ford is also getting some work alongside QB Jayden Daniels. While not necessarily a standout in either role, Ford theoretically could fill in for either Croskey-Merritt on early downs or White on passing downs. However, Ford got only $437,500 guaranteed on his one-year, $1.4 million contract, leaving him at risk of missing out on the Week 1 roster if things don't go well this summer. The Commanders also have sixth-round pick Kaytron Allen and 30-year-old Jeremy McNichols competing for roster spots. There's been no hint of trouble with the shoulder injury that ended Ford's 2025 campaign in Cleveland.

Verdict

vs 2.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it

Projection vs line59neutral

Consistency12argues against it

Projection

2.4 REC(×0.90 context)

L5 2.8 · L10 2.8 · med 2.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.6 · ceil 4.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 109 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Last 209 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Season9 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	9/9
	78%	7/9
2.5Current	44%	4/9
	33%	3/9
	22%	2/9
	0%	0/9

Last 9 games — REC per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%2/6Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%4/8Low

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt out+2.3 REC when he sits

Without (3g)

4.3 REC

100% over 2.5

With (6g)

2.0 REC

17% over 2.5

Last matchup — vs TEN

Dec 7, 2025

27thof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

TEN allows 1.6 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 29 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 9 games, Jerome Ford has gone over 2.5 REC 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. TEN has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 27th-most REC of 32 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.