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Washington CommandersJerome Ford
#34 · RB · 5' 10" · 210 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Dec 7, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Cincinnati
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 8.1 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJerome Ford isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, on the other hand, has been absent from recent practices with a soft-tissue injury. It sounds like Rachaad White has been getting a lot of the first-team snaps, but Ford is also getting some work alongside QB Jayden Daniels. While not necessarily a standout in either role, Ford theoretically could fill in for either Croskey-Merritt on early downs or White on passing downs. However, Ford got only $437,500 guaranteed on his one-year, $1.4 million contract, leaving him at risk of missing out on the Week 1 roster if things don't go well this summer. The Commanders also have sixth-round pick Kaytron Allen and 30-year-old Jeremy McNichols competing for roster spots. There's been no hint of trouble with the shoulder injury that ended Ford's 2025 campaign in Cleveland.
Verdict
vs 0.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
5.1 RUSH YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 7.0 · L10 8.1 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 17.4
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%2/6Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%3/8Low
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt out+11.8 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
16.0 RUSH YDS
67% over 0.5
With (6g)
4.2 RUSH YDS
33% over 0.5
Last matchup — vs TEN
Dec 7, 2025
13thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
TEN allows 49.3 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 29 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 9 games, Jerome Ford has gone over 0.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. TEN has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 13th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (49.3 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 10.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.