Washington Commanders

Jerome Ford Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Dec 7, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jerome Ford has gone over 4.5 FS in 5 of his last 9 decided games (56%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Cincinnati
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 4.7 FS · our line

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OutJerome Ford isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, on the other hand, has been absent from recent practices with a soft-tissue injury. It sounds like Rachaad White has been getting a lot of the first-team snaps, but Ford is also getting some work alongside QB Jayden Daniels. While not necessarily a standout in either role, Ford theoretically could fill in for either Croskey-Merritt on early downs or White on passing downs. However, Ford got only $437,500 guaranteed on his one-year, $1.4 million contract, leaving him at risk of missing out on the Week 1 roster if things don't go well this summer. The Commanders also have sixth-round pick Kaytron Allen and 30-year-old Jeremy McNichols competing for roster spots. There's been no hint of trouble with the shoulder injury that ended Ford's 2025 campaign in Cleveland.

Verdict

vs 4.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it

Projection vs line46neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

4.0 FS(×0.90 context)

L5 4.9 · L10 4.7 · med 4.7

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.4 · ceil 6.7

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 109 games

56%over

5 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%

Last 209 games

56%over

5 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%

Season9 games

56%over

5 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	88%	7/8
	78%	7/9
	56%	5/9
4.5Current	56%	5/9
	33%	3/9
	22%	2/9
	22%	2/9

Last 9 games — FS per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days63%5/8Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt out+4.4 FS when he sits

Without (3g)

7.7 FS

100% over 4.5

With (6g)

3.3 FS

33% over 4.5

Last matchup — vs TEN

Dec 7, 2025

11thof 32 in FS allowed to running backs

TEN allows 11.8 FS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 29 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 9 games, Jerome Ford has gone over 4.5 FS 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. TEN has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 11th-most FS of 32 teams (11.8 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.