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Cincinnati BengalsJoe Burrow
#9 · QB · 6' 4" · 215 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 247.6 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJoe Burrow isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Bengals have been slow to adapt the growing trend in the NFL of working under center, and using more play-action from that set-up to initiate explosive plays. It's always been Burrow's preference to work out of the shotgun and survey the field, but the evidence suggests that the Bengals, while being successful in that format, are leaving explosive plays on the table as a result.
Verdict
vs 265.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency58neutral
Projection
257.9 PASS YDS(×1.01 context)
L5 271.8 · L10 247.6 · med 261.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 227.2 · ceil 300.8
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Last 207 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Season7 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 265.5Current | 43% | 3/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 265.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Last matchup — vs CLE
Jan 4, 2026
30thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
CLE allows 184.4 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Joe Burrow has gone over 265.5 PASS YDS 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. CLE has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 30th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (184.4 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 62.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.