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Cincinnati BengalsJoe Burrow
#9 · QB · 6' 4" · 215 lb · 9 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 7 of these 9 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 243.8 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutJoe Burrow isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Burrow's workmanlike stat line underscores the type of road upset victory it was for the Bengals, who didn't need to be overly aggressive against a Texans offense missing Nico Collins (hamstring). Burrow, who came into the game dealing with back tightness, took his share of lumps in the form of five sacks, but he delivered dynamic 32- and 18-yard touchdown passes to Ja'Marr Chase. Burrow also notably avoided any turnovers despite being consistently under duress, and through his first two games, he's completed a solid 68.2 percent of his passes and posted three touchdowns versus one interception while operating under center more often than in recent seasons. Burrow will look to continue his solid early-season play in a Week 3 divisional road matchup against the Steelers next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 252.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 47% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency61supports it
Projection
241.5 PASS YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 262.2 · L10 243.8 · med 254.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 217.8 · ceil 292.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Last 209 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Season9 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Situational splits
Over 252.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days63%5/8Low
Next matchup — @ PIT
Sep 27, 2026
25thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
PIT allows 175.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Joe Burrow has gone over 252.5 PASS YDS 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. PIT has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 25th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (175.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 56.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 250.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Hard Rock Bet-115
-6.5% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-115
-6.5% EV
Model vs market (over)-3.3%
Our model puts the over at 46.7% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (250.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.