Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Joe Burrow has gone over 17 FS in 5 of his last 9 decided games (56%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: LSU
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 18.2 FS · PrizePicks line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

PrizePicks payout options — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.

How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins

Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).

Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.

Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.

OutJoe Burrow isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Burrow's workmanlike stat line underscores the type of road upset victory it was for the Bengals, who didn't need to be overly aggressive against a Texans offense missing Nico Collins (hamstring). Burrow, who came into the game dealing with back tightness, took his share of lumps in the form of five sacks, but he delivered dynamic 32- and 18-yard touchdown passes to Ja'Marr Chase. Burrow also notably avoided any turnovers despite being consistently under duress, and through his first two games, he's completed a solid 68.2 percent of his passes and posted three touchdowns versus one interception while operating under center more often than in recent seasons. Burrow will look to continue his solid early-season play in a Week 3 divisional road matchup against the Steelers next Sunday.

Verdict

vs 17 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it

Projection vs line55neutral

Consistency39argues against it

Projection

18.0 FS(×0.99 context)

L5 20.6 · L10 18.2 · med 19.2

Consistency

Variable

floor 12.6 · ceil 23.4

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Open this line on PrizePicks→

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 109 games

56%over

5 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%

Last 209 games

56%over

5 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%

Season9 games

56%over

5 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%

Last 9 games — FS per game vs. line 17.0. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 17 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away60%3/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days63%5/8Low

Next matchup — @ PIT

Sep 27, 2026

32ndof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

PIT allows 8.4 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 9 games, Joe Burrow has gone over 17 FS 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. PIT has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 32nd-most FS of 32 teams (8.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.