Denver Broncos

Jonah Coleman Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jonah Coleman has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 0 of his last 3 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Washington
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.0 REC TD · our line

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OutJonah Coleman isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

With RJ Harvey (knee) on the shelf, Coleman saw a season-high 15 touches compared to J.K. Dobbins' seven, and the rookie was instrumental in the Broncos' fourth-quarter comeback. After a Harrison Butker missed field goal gave Denver great field position, Coleman was a one-man show on a two-play drive, taking a short pass from Bo Nix and turning it into a 51-yard gain before punching in a five-yard TD on the other side of the two-minute warning. Dobbins will still mix in on early downs, but Coleman may have just seized control of the backfield for the Broncos. He'll look to solidify his spot in Week 9 against a Panthers defense that's among the worst in the league against the run.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Matchup50neutral

Projection

0.0 REC TD(×1.03 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 53 games

0%over

0 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–56%

Last 103 games

0%over

0 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–56%

Last 203 games

0%over

0 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–56%

Season3 games

0%over

0 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–56%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/3
	0%	0/3
	0%	0/3
	0%	0/3

Last 3 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/2Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/2Low

Next matchup — @ CAR

Nov 8, 2026

15thof 32 in REC TD allowed to running backs

CAR allows 0.1 REC TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 13 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 3 games, Jonah Coleman has gone over 0.5 REC TD 0 of 3 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. CAR has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 15th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.1 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.