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Indianapolis ColtsJonathan Taylor
#28 · RB · 5' 10" · 226 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Wisconsin
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 83.9 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJonathan Taylor isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
"You can't avoid it," Taylor said of the trade rumors. "But it's more about trying to block that out." Taylor's preparing for what could well be his last game as a member of the Colts. Per NFL reporter Jordan Schultz, the 2-6 Colts have received trade calls on numerous players including Taylor, but Indianapolis doesn't intend to complete any additional trades prior to the conclusion of Sunday's game.
Verdict
vs 93.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 31% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line31argues against it
Consistency63supports it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
79.9 RUSH YDS(×0.95 context)
L5 79.4 · L10 83.9 · med 94.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 72.8 · ceil 95.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 93.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 14% | 1/7 | ||
| 14% | 1/7 |
Situational splits
Over 93.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — vs DAL
Nov 8, 2026
17thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
DAL allows 45.6 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 20 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Jonathan Taylor has gone over 93.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 17th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (45.6 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 18.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 61.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 51.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-4.3% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-105
-4.3% EV
Model vs market (over)-19.5%
Our model puts the over at 31.5% vs the market's no-vig 51.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (61.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.