Loading…
Indianapolis ColtsJonathan Taylor
#28 · RB · 5' 10" · 226 lb · 17 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Wisconsin
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 93.2 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJonathan Taylor isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Taylor, who is approaching the final season of his contract, indicated during the spring that he wants "to be a Colt for life," and per Stephen Holder of ESPN.com, the running back noted Wednesday that "there's been some good conversations" and that he has faith in the team coming through with a new deal for him. Following a 2025 regular season in which he recorded 323 carries for 1,585 yards and 18 touchdowns in 17 games while adding a 46/378/2 receiving line, the 2020 second-rounder retains his fantasy-friendly role as the undisputed lead option in an Indianapolis RB corps that also currently includes DJ Giddens, Seth McGowan, Ulysses Bentley and Anderson Castle.
Verdict
vs 76.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency8argues against it
Projection
72.8 RUSH YDS(×1.00 context)
L5 60.6 · L10 88.8 · med 72.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 59.6 · ceil 118.8
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2017 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Season17 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 76.5Current | 47% | 8/17 | |
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 |
Situational splits
Over 76.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%8/16Medium
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Daniel Jones out-47.1 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (4g)
57.3 RUSH YDS
25% over 76.5
With (13g)
104.3 RUSH YDS
54% over 76.5
Last matchup — @ HOU
Jan 4, 2026
26thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
HOU allows 44.3 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 31 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jonathan Taylor has gone over 76.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 47% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 26th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (44.3 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 51.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.