
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jonathan Taylor has gone over 22.5 REC YDS in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.
Taylor suited up for what might have been his final game in a Colts uniform with Tuesday's trade deadline looming, and the star running back had a positively ordinary day. Taylor couldn't fully exploit a vulnerable Cowboys defense, and the fumble they forced from him early in the fourth quarter at Dallas' 20-yard line cost Indianapolis what seemed like a sure scoring opportunity. Taylor has seen reduced usage in the last two games as rumors have swirled about a potential trade, and James Boyd of The Athletic reports that Taylor answered "I don't know. I know as much as you" when asked about whether Sunday had marked his last game as a Colt. Taylor declined to confirm whether he'd requested a trade, and the next 48 hours will bring clarity on whether he'll still be helming the team's ground attack in Week 10 against the Dolphins.
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 22.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Over 22.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
MIA allows 17.4 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
FavorableOver his last 7 games, Jonathan Taylor has gone over 22.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. MIA has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 10th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (17.4 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 18.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.
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