Carolina Panthers

Jonathon Brooks Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jonathon Brooks has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 0 of his last 2 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.0 REC TD · our line

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DoubtfulConfirm Jonathon Brooks's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Groin Not Specified

The Panthers are unlikely to provide a formal update on Brooks' status until he gets checked out by multiple doctors, but the running back appears destined to miss time after tweaking the same groin that he first injured during training camp. Brooks had been operating as the clear No. 2 option out of the backfield behind Chuba Hubbard through the first two weeks of the season, logging 19 and 33 percent snap shares in those contests while carrying nine times for 30 yards and recording two catches for 43 yards on three targets.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

Cool underFireFactor 35/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Projection

0.0 REC TD(×1.01 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Recent history runs under on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Doubtful — likely sidelined; confirm status first.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Last 102 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Last 202 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Season2 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/1Low

Next matchup — @ CLE

Sep 27, 2026

10thof 32 in REC TD allowed to running backs

CLE allows 0.0 REC TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 2 games, Jonathon Brooks has gone over 0.5 REC TD 0 of 2 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. CLE has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 10th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.