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Minnesota VikingsJordan Addison
#3 · WR · 5' 11" · 179 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- USC
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 56.7 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJordan Addison isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Vikings exercised Addison's fifth-year option in April, with the 2023 first-rounder now under contract with the team through 2027. Over the course of 14 regular-season games in 2025, Addison recorded a 42-610-3 receiving line on 79 targets, but issues with drops and subpar QB play didn't help his cause. With former Cardinal Kyler Murray now on board and viewed as the favorite start at quarterback in Week 1 over J.J. McCarthy, and Jennings likely to draw more defensive attention than prior WR3 Jalen Nailor, Addison profiles as a bounce-back candidate in 2026.
Verdict
vs 41.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
51.4 REC YDS(×1.02 context)
L5 40.2 · L10 56.7 · med 41.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 31.4 · ceil 82.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 41.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 |
Situational splits
Over 41.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%3/8Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
J.J. McCarthy out+27.8 REC YDS when he sits
Without (5g)
69.0 REC YDS
40% over 41.5
With (4g)
41.3 REC YDS
50% over 41.5
Aaron Jones Sr. out+56.5 REC YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
94.3 REC YDS
67% over 41.5
With (6g)
37.8 REC YDS
33% over 41.5
Last matchup — vs WSH
Dec 7, 2025
4thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
WSH allows 49.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 53 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, Jordan Addison has gone over 41.5 REC YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 4th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (49.8 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 36.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.