Minnesota Vikings

Jordan Addison Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jordan Addison has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: USC
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.3 REC TD · our line

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OutJordan Addison isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Addison's big play was a 51-yard catch over the top of the defense in the fourth quarter to set the offense up at the 10-yard line. T.J. Hockenson scored a go-ahead touchdown two plays later. Addison's eight targets on the day were one fewer than Justin Jefferson, but it was the former who paced the team in receiving yards. Playing in a Minnesota offense that doesn't push the ball down the field much or focus on its outside receivers, Addison has just 16 catches for 249 yards and one touchdown on 33 targets through six games this season. He'll be a fantasy WR4 with upside next Monday night against a leaky Bills secondary.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 79% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line79supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

0.2 REC TD(×1.03 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2016 games

25%over

4 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 10%–49%

Season16 games

25%over

4 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 10%–49%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	25%	4/16
	0%	0/16
	0%	0/16
	0%	0/16

Last 16 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home14%1/7Low

Away33%3/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days27%4/15Medium

Next matchup — vs BUF

Nov 10, 2026

1stof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

BUF allows 0.5 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 22 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jordan Addison has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 25% across the full season. BUF has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 1st-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.5 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 25%.