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Green Bay PackersJosh Jacobs
#8 · RB · 5' 10" · 223 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 14 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 63.5 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Josh Jacobs's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Finger Fracture
Head coach Matt LaFleur revealed the nature of Jacobs' injury after the game. Jacobs exited the win with what was initially deemed a hand injury. He was unable to return against the Patriots, but the Packers are hoping Jacobs will be available for Week 10 against the Vikings. If Jacobs can't go, Pierre Strong, Kaleb Johnson and possibly MarShawn Lloyd (knee) would be Green Bay's backfield options.
Verdict
vs 69.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 9/100· model 72% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line72supports it
Consistency42neutral
Matchup50neutral
Projection
47.2 RUSH YDS(×0.86 context)
L5 47.8 · L10 60.2 · med 64.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 36.0 · ceil 86.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 69.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 |
Situational splits
Over 69.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home71%5/7Low
Away33%3/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
Next matchup — vs MIN
Nov 15, 2026
14thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
MIN allows 48.1 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 15 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Josh Jacobs has gone over 69.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIN has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 14th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (48.1 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 22.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 47.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-112
-5.4% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-112
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)-21.5%
Our model puts the over at 28.5% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (47.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.