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Baltimore RavensJustice Hill
#43 · RB · 5' 10" · 205 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Nov 9, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma State
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 14.5 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJustice Hill isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Hill sustained a neck injury in practice leading up to Week 13 last season and spent the remainder of the 2025 campaign on injured reserve. He was inching closer to a return toward the end of last season, so it's fair to assume he's back to 100 percent. Hill is expected to once again serve as the pass-catching specialist out of the backfield behind Derrick Henry in 2026.
Verdict
vs 4.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
17.3 RUSH YDS(×1.09 context)
L5 20.2 · L10 14.5 · med 4.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 16.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 4.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%3/5Low
Last matchup — @ MIA
Oct 31, 2025
22ndof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
MIA allows 46.7 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 38 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 6 games, Justice Hill has gone over 4.5 RUSH YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 22nd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (46.7 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 28.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.