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Baltimore RavensJustice Hill
#43 · RB · 5' 10" · 205 lb · 8 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 6 of these 8 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma State
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 13.9 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutJustice Hill isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Hill saw an uptick in usage in the fourth quarter with the Ravens firmly in control of the game. He played 31 of 68 offensive snaps, which wasn't that far behind bell cow Derrick Henry's 37 snaps, though Hill is firmly entrenched as the Ravens' RB2, with Rasheen Ali being the distant third option. Hill will continue to serve as the change-of-pace back for the Ravens heading into Week 2 against the Saints on Sept. 20.
Verdict
vs 13.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)83supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
16.5 RUSH YDS(×1.19 context)
L5 23.6 · L10 13.9 · med 6.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.8 · ceil 17.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Last 208 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Season8 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Situational splits
Over 13.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
Next matchup — @ DAL
Sep 27, 2026
20thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
DAL allows 41.4 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Justice Hill has gone over 13.5 RUSH YDS 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 20th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (41.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 25.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.