Baltimore Ravens

Justice Hill Targets

Stats updated: Nov 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Justice Hill has gone over 2.5 TGT in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oklahoma State
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 3.1 TGT · our line

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OutJustice Hill isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Hill provided the sole offensive highlight of the night for the moribund, Joe Fagnano-led offense, making one cut after getting the handoff from the rookie quarterback halfway through the fourth quarter and bursting through the defense up the right side of the field for a 65-yard touchdown run. Hill's yardage total was both a team- and season-high figure for the veteran change-of-pace back, who should benefit from the pending trade acquisition of Jacoby Brissett from the Cardinals whenever the veteran signal-caller is able to take the reins of the offense.

Verdict

vs 2.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it

Projection vs line67supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

3.9 TGT(×1.07 context)

L5 3.8 · L10 3.1 · med 3.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.2 · ceil 4.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 107 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Last 207 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Season7 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	86%	6/7
	71%	5/7
2.5Current	57%	4/7
	43%	3/7
	14%	1/7
	14%	1/7

Last 7 games — TGT per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days67%4/6Low

Last matchup — vs JAX

Nov 5, 2026

19thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

JAX allows 2.5 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 17 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 7 games, Justice Hill has gone over 2.5 TGT 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. JAX has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 19th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.5 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.