San Francisco 49ers

Kaelon Black Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Oct 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kaelon Black has gone over 4.5 FS in 3 of his last 6 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Indiana
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 4.8 FS · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutKaelon Black isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Christian McCaffrey suffered a thigh injury in the opening period that eventually led to him missing the entire second quarter, affording Black expanded opportunity. The rookie made good use of the extra touches, averaging a career-high 5.3 yards per carry and recording his highest rushing yardage total since his Week 1 NFL debut. Black also rang up his first TD as a professional, a 30-yard breakaway run on the first play of the second quarter. However, the rookie made a key mistake when he lost a fumble with San Francisco nearing the red zone in the second quarter. McCaffrey did return to the game for the second half and now has the Week 8 bye to recover, so Black could be back to a more reduced role in a Week 9 home matchup against the Raiders on Sunday, Nov. 8.

Verdict

vs 4.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 41% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral

Projection vs line41neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

5.5 FS(×1.03 context)

L5 4.2 · L10 4.8 · med 3.6

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.6 · ceil 8.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 106 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Last 206 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Season6 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	83%	5/6
	60%	3/5
	50%	3/6
4.5Current	50%	3/6
	33%	2/6
	33%	2/6
	33%	2/6

Last 6 games — FS per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days40%2/5Low

Next matchup — vs LV

Nov 8, 2026

7thof 32 in FS allowed to running backs

LV allows 12.9 FS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 15 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 6 games, Kaelon Black has gone over 4.5 FS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LV has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 7th-most FS of 32 teams (12.9 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.