San Francisco 49ers

Kaelon Black Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kaelon Black has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 0 of his last 2 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Indiana
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.0 REC TD · our line

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OutKaelon Black isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Black suited up for his second NFL contest after being listed as questionable coming into the game. He actually had two more rushing yards than Christian McCaffrey, but McCaffrey scored two touchdowns on 10 carries and added four catches for 43 yards. Black is poised to continue splitting the rushing workload with CMC in Week 3 against the Cardinals, though McCaffrey remains the preferred option in valuable goal-line and passing situations.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Projection

0.0 REC TD(×1.08 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Last 102 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Last 202 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Season2 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/1Low

Next matchup — vs ARI

Sep 27, 2026

10thof 32 in REC TD allowed to running backs

ARI allows 0.0 REC TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 2 games, Kaelon Black has gone over 0.5 REC TD 0 of 2 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. ARI has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 10th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.