Los Angeles Chargers

Keaton Mitchell Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Keaton Mitchell has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 5 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: East Carolina
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.2 REC TD · our line

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OutKeaton Mitchell isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Mitchell led LA's three-man backfield rotation with 67 scrimmage yards, while Omarion Hampton had 60 and Kimani Vidal contributed 36. Mitchell's fumble came late in the third quarter, with the Chargers already trailing 31-9 at the time. The winless Chargers are averaging a league-low 15.1 points per game heading into a Week 10 trip to Baltimore, and things could get even worse if QB Justin Herbert (finger) has to miss time after getting injured in the fourth quarter.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 84% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line84supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 REC TD

L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 105 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 205 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Season5 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	20%	1/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/2Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days25%1/4Low

Last matchup — @ LAR

Nov 1, 2026

20thof 32 in REC TD allowed to running backs

LAR allows 0.1 REC TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 17 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 5 games, Keaton Mitchell has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 5 decided times (20%) — versus 20% across the full season. LAR has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 20th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.1 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 20%.