Buffalo Bills

Khalil Shakir Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Khalil Shakir has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 0 of his last 10 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Boise State
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.2 REC TD · our line

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OutKhalil Shakir isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Shakir finished a distant third on the Bills in receiving yards behind Dalton Kincaid and DJ Moore, each of whom reached the 100-yard mark. Moore paced the team with eight targets in his Bills debut, while Shakir and Kincaid tied for second with six apiece. Shakir gets most of his opportunities on short passes near the line of scrimmage, so he's likely to keep getting looks from Josh Allen after leading the team in targets each of the past two seasons, but most of the downfield opportunities should go to alternative options, thus capping Shakir's ceiling. Buffalo will play its home opener Thursday against the Lions.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 87% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line87supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.1 REC TD(×1.09 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

0%over

0 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–28%

Last 2016 games

19%over

3 over · 13 under

Medium confidence95% CI 7%–43%

Season16 games

19%over

3 over · 13 under

Medium confidence95% CI 7%–43%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	19%	3/16
	0%	0/16
	0%	0/16
	0%	0/16

Last 16 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%2/6Low

Away10%1/10Medium

Days since last game

3+ days20%3/15Medium

Next matchup — vs DET

Sep 18, 2026

10thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

DET allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Khalil Shakir has gone over 0.5 REC TD 0 of 10 decided times (0%) — versus 19% across the full season. DET has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 10th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 19%.