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Chicago BearsKyle Monangai Receptions
Stats updated: Oct 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Kyle Monangai has gone over 1.5 REC in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Rutgers
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 1.5 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Kyle Monangai's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Toe Sprain
Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune reported Monangai took part in drills Friday for the first time since suffering a turf toe injury against the Jets on Oct. 4, and the activity was enough to give him a chance to return to action this weekend. The Bears play on Sunday Night Football in Week 9, so there won't be many options to pivot to if Monangai ends up missing a fifth consecutive contest. Even if he's able to suit up, it stands to reason he likely won't handle his normal workload (16.3 touches per game this season), especially with fellow RB D'Andre Swift running on all cylinders at the moment.
Verdict
vs 1.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 48% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
1.6 REC(×1.15 context)
L5 1.8 · L10 1.7 · med 1.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 11/15 | ||
| 1.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 27% | 4/15 | ||
| 7% | 1/15 | ||
| 0% | 0/15 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%4/9Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%6/14Low
With a teammate out
How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
D'Andre Swift out+0.4 REC when he sits
Without (11g)
1.6 REC
45% over 1.5
With (4g)
1.3 REC
50% over 1.5
Luther Burden III out+0.4 REC when he sits
Without (11g)
1.6 REC
45% over 1.5
With (4g)
1.3 REC
50% over 1.5
Next matchup — vs TB
Nov 9, 2026
4thof 32 in REC allowed to running backs
TB allows 2.7 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kyle Monangai has gone over 1.5 REC 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 47% across the full season. TB has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 4th-most REC of 32 teams (2.7 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.
More Kyle Monangai research
Kyle Monangai — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Monangai Carries→
Carries hit rates and trends.
Monangai Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Monangai Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Monangai Receiving Yards→
Receiving Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.