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Baltimore RavensLamar Jackson
#8 · QB · 6' 2" · 205 lb · 11 games
Stats updated: Jan 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Louisville
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 208.9 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutLamar Jackson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
On that topic, Jackson indicated "whatever it takes to win. So whether I'm running less or running more, it's whatever it takes to win." It's worth noting that various injuries throughout the 2025 campaign affected the star QB's practice participation, including a hamstring issue that cropped up in Week 3 and led to Jackson missing three contests. Now that he's had the offseason to heal up, a healthy Jackson, in general, profiles as a bounce-back candidate in 2026, with a return to triple-digit carries plausible in the absence of injury setbacks. While Jackson declined to elaborate on how talks regarding a possible contract extension with the Ravens were going, Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic relays the 29-year-old signal caller maintains he wants to remain with the franchise for the foreseeable future. "I love this organization. I love this city," Jackson said. "This is the team that drafted me, got a lot of love for me and I got a lot of love for this city and the team as well." Meanwhile, the two-time MVP has been a regular at Baltimore's voluntary offseason workout program, with an eye toward gaining familiarity with a new offensive scheme/system being implemented by the team's incoming coaching staff.
Verdict
vs 208.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency68supports it
Projection
223.1 PASS YDS(×1.05 context)
L5 209.8 · L10 208.9 · med 211.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 176.0 · ceil 238.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2011 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Season11 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 208.5Current | 55% | 6/11 | |
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 |
Situational splits
Over 208.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home80%4/5Low
Away33%2/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%5/10Low
Last matchup — @ PIT
Jan 5, 2026
1stof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
PIT allows 260.4 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 18 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Lamar Jackson has gone over 208.5 PASS YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. PIT has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 1st-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (260.4 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 39.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.