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Baltimore RavensLamar Jackson
#8 · QB · 6' 2" · 205 lb · 15 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 11 of these 15 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Louisville
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 217.7 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutLamar Jackson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Thumb Surgery
- Est. return:
- Dec 13, 2026
Prior to Thursday night's game against the Jaguars, the Ravens made a trio of moves to re-shape their Week 9 QB corps. Along with Jackson, Tyler Huntley (toe) landed on IR, while Austin Reed was added to the team's active roster. As a result, Joe Fagnano (Thursday's starter), Kedon Slovis and Austin Reed are available to face Jacksonville, and then in the coming days Jacoby Brissett will be on his way to Baltimore via a looming trade with the Cardinals. Jackson will miss his team's next four games, at a minimum, and it's possible that his injury could be season ending, an outcome that is already reportedly in the cards for Huntley.
Verdict
vs 218.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 36% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line36argues against it
Consistency65supports it
Projection
202.8 PASS YDS(×0.91 context)
L5 241.0 · L10 219.2 · med 220.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 184.0 · ceil 239.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2015 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Season15 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 218.5Current | 53% | 8/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 |
Situational splits
Over 218.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home86%6/7Low
Away25%2/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%8/14Low
With a teammate out
How this PASS YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Derrick Henry out-32.8 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (11g)
208.9 PASS YDS
45% over 218.5
With (4g)
241.8 PASS YDS
75% over 218.5
Zay Flowers out-32.9 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (12g)
211.1 PASS YDS
50% over 218.5
With (3g)
244.0 PASS YDS
67% over 218.5
Last matchup — vs TEN
Oct 4, 2026
4thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
TEN allows 264.9 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Lamar Jackson has gone over 218.5 PASS YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 53% across the full season. TEN has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 4th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (264.9 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 45.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.