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Baltimore RavensLamar Jackson Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Lamar Jackson has gone over 20.5 FS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Louisville
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 18.5 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutLamar Jackson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After throwing for 324 yards and averaging 13.0 yards per attempt in a win over the Colts last week, Jackson's passing numbers fell back to earth with Zay Flowers (hamstring) sidelined. The star QB still had a chance to put together a game-tying drive late in the fourth quarter, but Rashod Bateman broke off a route early and Jackson's pass attempt deep into New Orleans territory got intercepted instead. It was Jackson's first INT in two games, and he's amassed 559 passing yards and 74 rushing yards with three total TDs (two passing, one rushing) heading into a Week 3 road trip to Dallas.
Verdict
vs 20.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)57neutral
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency28argues against it
Projection
21.5 FS(×1.18 context)
L5 18.4 · L10 15.8 · med 15.2
Consistency
Variable
floor 9.2 · ceil 26.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2013 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Season13 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 20.5Current | 54% | 7/13 | |
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 38% | 5/13 | ||
| 38% | 5/13 |
Situational splits
Over 20.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%6/12Low
Next matchup — @ DAL
Sep 27, 2026
15thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks
DAL allows 16.7 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Lamar Jackson has gone over 20.5 FS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 54% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 15th-most FS of 32 teams (16.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.
More Lamar Jackson research
Lamar Jackson — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Jackson Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Jackson Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Jackson Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.