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Washington CommandersMarcus Mariota
#8 · QB · 6' 4" · 222 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Dec 20, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 13 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 200.3 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 211.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 43% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line43neutral
Consistency56neutral
Projection
194.8 PASS YDS(×1.01 context)
L5 205.2 · L10 200.3 · med 212.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 176.4 · ceil 213.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 211.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 13% | 1/8 | ||
| 13% | 1/8 |
Situational splits
Over 211.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
With a teammate out
How this PASS YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Rachaad White out+6.0 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (4g)
203.3 PASS YDS
50% over 211.5
With (4g)
197.3 PASS YDS
50% over 211.5
Last matchup — vs PHI
Dec 20, 2025
21stof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
PHI allows 205.3 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 18 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Marcus Mariota has gone over 211.5 PASS YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. PHI has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 21st-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (205.3 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 53.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.