Washington Commanders

Marcus Mariota Passing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Marcus Mariota has gone over 0.5 PASS TD in 8 of his last 9 decided games (89%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oregon
Experience: 13 seasons

Line

pays less

PrizePicksPassing TDs · season avg 1.2 PASS TD · PrizePicks line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutMarcus Mariota isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

After Daniels injured his elbow on the Commanders' final snap of the second quarter of Sunday's 37-20 loss to the Cowboys, Mariota directed the offense for the second half and finished with 11 completions on 16 attempts for 111 yards and a touchdown to go with three yards on his lone carry. Though a recovery timeline for Daniels has yet to be established while he plans to consult with a number of experts over the next few days before deciding on a treatment plan, the same injury kept him out for seven of the Commanders' final eight games of the 2025 campaign. With that in mind, Mariota could very well be headed for a multi-game run as Washington's starter.

Verdict

vs 0.5 PASS TDPassing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 72% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line58neutral

Consistency14argues against it

Projection

1.0 PASS TD(×0.93 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Open this line on PrizePicks→

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 109 games

89%over

8 over · 1 under

Medium confidence95% CI 56%–98%

Last 209 games

89%over

8 over · 1 under

Medium confidence95% CI 56%–98%

Season9 games

89%over

8 over · 1 under

Medium confidence95% CI 56%–98%

Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)

PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PASS TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	89%	8/9
	33%	3/9
	0%	0/9
	0%	0/9

Last 9 games — PASS TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home75%3/4Low

Away100%5/5Medium

Days since last game

3+ days88%7/8Medium

Next matchup — vs SEA

Sep 27, 2026

19thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks

SEA allows 1.0 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 9 games, Marcus Mariota has gone over 0.5 PASS TD 8 of 9 decided times (89%) — versus 89% across the full season. SEA has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 19th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (1.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 89%.