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Arizona CardinalsMarvin Harrison Jr.
#18 · WR · 6' 3" · 220 lb · 9 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 9 of these 9 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 62.4 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMarvin Harrison Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Harrison was held without a reception for the second time in three regular-season contests dating back to Week 17 of the 2025 campaign. The wide receiver has now gone four straight regular-season games without recording multiple receptions, and quarterback Jacoby Brissett clearly prefers other options like tight end Trey McBride and fellow wideout Michael Wilson over Harrison again in 2026. It's hard to be confident in the 24-year-old former first-round pick heading into the team's Week 3 matchup with San Francisco.
Verdict
vs 65.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency37argues against it
Projection
62.8 REC YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 70.8 · L10 62.4 · med 66.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 39.6 · ceil 81.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Last 209 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Season9 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 65.5Current | 56% | 5/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 |
Situational splits
Over 65.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%4/8Low
Next matchup — @ SF
Sep 27, 2026
20thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
SF allows 40.5 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 9 games, Marvin Harrison Jr. has gone over 65.5 REC YDS 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. SF has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 20th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (40.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 23.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.