Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr. Receptions

Stats updated: Dec 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Marvin Harrison Jr. has gone over 4.5 REC in 4 of his last 9 decided games (44%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ohio State
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 4.2 REC · our line

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OutMarvin Harrison Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Harrison didn't finish practice Sunday due to what coach Mike LaFleur described as cramping. However, the 2024 first-rounder is fine after Monday's day off and will return to the mix Tuesday. As the coming campaign approaches, Harrison will reprise his starting role alongside Michael Wilson. The 23-year-old Harrison is coming off a 2025 regular season in which he caught 41 of 73 passes for 608 yards and four TDs in 12 contests, but if he's able to stay healthy while building a strong rapport with starting QB Jacoby Brissett, his production should take a step forward.

Verdict

vs 4.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it

Projection vs line48neutral

Consistency31argues against it

Projection

4.8 REC(×1.07 context)

L5 4.4 · L10 4.2 · med 4.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.6 · ceil 6.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 109 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Last 209 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Season9 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	9/9
	78%	7/9
	56%	5/9
4.5Current	44%	4/9
	33%	3/9
	11%	1/9
	0%	0/9

Last 9 games — REC per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%1/4Low

Away60%3/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days38%3/8Low

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Jacoby Brissett out-0.4 REC when he sits

Without (4g)

4.0 REC

50% over 4.5

With (5g)

4.4 REC

40% over 4.5

Last matchup — @ TB

Nov 30, 2025

13thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

TB allows 3.5 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 58 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 9 games, Marvin Harrison Jr. has gone over 4.5 REC 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. TB has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 13th-most REC of 32 teams (3.5 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.