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Los Angeles RamsMatthew Stafford
#9 · QB · 6' 3" · 214 lb · 20 games
Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Georgia
- Experience
- 19 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 282.1 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMatthew Stafford isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Stafford was set to enter the 2026 campaign in the final year of his two-year, $84 million contract that he signed with Los Angeles ahead of the 2025 season, but he now will be under contract through 2027. The 38-year-old is coming off of an MVP campaign in which he compiled 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns while completing 65 percent of his passes over 17 regular-season contests. His new deal is worth up to $60 million dollars, so Stafford could earn up to $105 million over the next two seasons. The Rams drafted the quarterback's successor in Ty Simpson 13th overall in the 2026 NFL Draft, and Simpson may get a chance to sit behind Stafford for multiple years.
Verdict
vs 276.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 31% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line31argues against it
Consistency54neutral
Projection
332.7 PASS YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 292.8 · L10 308.6 · med 277.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 233.6 · ceil 369.2
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season20 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 276.5Current | 50% | 10/20 | |
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 50% | 10/20 |
Situational splits
Over 276.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%6/12Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%10/19Medium
Last matchup — @ SEA
Jan 25, 2026
15thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
SEA allows 220.8 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 20 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Matthew Stafford has gone over 276.5 PASS YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SEA has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 15th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (220.8 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 78.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.