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Los Angeles RamsMatthew Stafford
#9 · QB · 6' 3" · 214 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Georgia
- Experience
- 19 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 268.3 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMatthew Stafford isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Stafford was seen leaving the locker room with his upper right arm wrapped in ice after this past Sunday's win against the Chargers. Head coach Sean McVay told Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register on Monday that Stafford has been tending to arm soreness, but the quarterback clarified the situation with Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times on Wednesday, stating that he's had his right arm wrapped in ice regularly this season. An uncapped session to begin Week 9 prep puts Stafford in the clear to continue to lead the Ram's offense Sunday in Washington.
Verdict
vs 269.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency43neutral
Projection
271.0 PASS YDS(×1.09 context)
L5 254.8 · L10 268.3 · med 269.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 172.2 · ceil 360.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 269.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 269.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — @ WSH
Nov 8, 2026
7thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
WSH allows 258.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Matthew Stafford has gone over 269.5 PASS YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 7th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (258.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 91.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 246.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-112
-5.4% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-112
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+4.0%
Our model puts the over at 54.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (246.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.