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Los Angeles RamsMatthew Stafford Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Matthew Stafford has gone over 0.5 RUSH YDS in 2 of his last 8 decided games (25%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Georgia
- Experience
- 19 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 2.3 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMatthew Stafford isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Stafford was seen leaving the locker room with his upper right arm wrapped in ice after this past Sunday's win against the Chargers. Head coach Sean McVay told Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register on Monday that Stafford has been tending to arm soreness, but the quarterback clarified the situation with Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times on Wednesday, stating that he's had his right arm wrapped in ice regularly this season. An uncapped session to begin Week 9 prep puts Stafford in the clear to continue to lead the Ram's offense Sunday in Washington.
Verdict
vs 0.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.5 RUSH YDS(×1.09 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 2.3 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor -1.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 108 games
25%over
2 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 7%–59%Last 208 games
25%over
2 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 7%–59%Season8 games
25%over
2 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 7%–59%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 25% | 2/8 | |
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/5Medium
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days29%2/7Low
Next matchup — @ WSH
Nov 8, 2026
5thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
WSH allows 22.7 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Matthew Stafford has gone over 0.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 8 decided times (25%) — versus 25% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 5th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (22.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 0.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 41.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 58.1%
Best Over
FanDuel+126
-5.2% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-151
-3.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+4.5%
Our model puts the over at 46.4% vs the market's no-vig 41.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 25%.
More Matthew Stafford research
Matthew Stafford — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Stafford Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Stafford Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Stafford Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.