Loading…
Cincinnati BengalsMike Gesicki
#88 · TE · 6' 6" · 245 lb · 9 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 8 of these 9 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 34.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMike Gesicki isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
One week after leading the team in receiving with a 5-78-1 line on seven targets against the Bucs, Gesicki laid an egg against Houston. He played just 21 of 60 offensive snaps, fewer than both Drew Sample (36) and Erick All (25) at tight end for the Bengals. Despite playing fewer snaps than both, Gesicki led the trip with 20 pass routes, seven more than Sample and 15 more than All. Gesicki is essentially a fourth receiver behind Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Andrei Iosivas. He'd need an injury to Chase or Higgins to have a reliable fantasy role.
Verdict
vs 19.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 27% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line27argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
49.9 REC YDS(×1.12 context)
L5 50.6 · L10 34.0 · med 19.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 14.6 · ceil 52.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 19.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 |
Situational splits
Over 19.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%4/8Low
Next matchup — @ PIT
Sep 27, 2026
12thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
PIT allows 23.3 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 9 games, Mike Gesicki has gone over 19.5 REC YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. PIT has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 12th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (23.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 27.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.