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Cincinnati BengalsMike Gesicki
#88 · TE · 6' 6" · 245 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 28.5 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMike Gesicki isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Also competing for TE slotting are Erick All (knee), Tanner Hudson, Jack Endries, Cam Grandy and Josh Kattus. Gesicki saw his production drop last season to 28 catches (on 42 targets) for 307 yards and two TDs in 13 regular-season games, down from the 65-665-2 line he posted in 2024, his first year with Cincinnati. Four missed games of his own, along with injuries limiting star QB Joe Burrow to eight regular-season appearances in 2025, didn't help Gesicki's cause, but with Noah Fant (34 catches on 41 targets) no longer in the mix, Gesicki has a chance to rebound as a secondary target with some streaming utility in a 2026 passing attack that will continue to lean heavily on WRs Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, as well as RB Chase Brown.
Verdict
vs 18.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 71% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line71supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
38.4 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 38.0 · L10 28.5 · med 18.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 14.4 · ceil 35.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 18.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 |
Situational splits
Over 18.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Joe Burrow out-15.7 REC YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
18.7 REC YDS
33% over 18.5
With (5g)
34.4 REC YDS
60% over 18.5
Last matchup — @ MIA
Dec 21, 2025
10thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
MIA allows 28.6 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 37 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Mike Gesicki has gone over 18.5 REC YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIA has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 10th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (28.6 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 23.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.