Cincinnati Bengals

Mike Gesicki Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Mike Gesicki has gone over 2.5 REC in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Penn State
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 2.8 REC · our line

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OutMike Gesicki isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Also competing for TE slotting are Erick All (knee), Tanner Hudson, Jack Endries, Cam Grandy and Josh Kattus. Gesicki saw his production drop last season to 28 catches (on 42 targets) for 307 yards and two TDs in 13 regular-season games, down from the 65-665-2 line he posted in 2024, his first year with Cincinnati. Four missed games of his own, along with injuries limiting star QB Joe Burrow to eight regular-season appearances in 2025, didn't help Gesicki's cause, but with Noah Fant (34 catches on 41 targets) no longer in the mix, Gesicki has a chance to rebound as a secondary target with some streaming utility in a 2026 passing attack that will continue to lean heavily on WRs Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, as well as RB Chase Brown.

Verdict

vs 2.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line63supports it

Consistency5argues against it

Projection

3.4 REC(×1.10 context)

L5 3.4 · L10 2.8 · med 2.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.4 · ceil 3.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	8/8
	75%	6/8
2.5Current	50%	4/8
	25%	2/8
	13%	1/8
	13%	1/8

Last 8 games — REC per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away40%2/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days57%4/7Low

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Joe Burrow out-0.7 REC when he sits

Without (3g)

2.3 REC

33% over 2.5

With (5g)

3.0 REC

60% over 2.5

Last matchup — @ MIA

Dec 21, 2025

14thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends

MIA allows 2.7 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 37 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 8 games, Mike Gesicki has gone over 2.5 REC 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIA has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 14th-most REC of 32 teams (2.7 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.