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Carolina PanthersMitchell Evans
#84 · TE · 6' 5" · 258 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Jan 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 18.3 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMitchell Evans isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Evans suffered a low-ankle sprain last Tuesday and was carted off the practice field. The tight end missed a few days of practice but appears to be back in uniform and pads. Evans will continue to compete with Ja'Tavion Sanders for the No. 2 tight end role behind Tommy Tremble.
Verdict
vs 22.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 28% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line28argues against it
Consistency21argues against it
Projection
13.9 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 16.2 · L10 18.3 · med 23.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 8.0 · ceil 23.8
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 22.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 14% | 1/7 | ||
| 14% | 1/7 |
Situational splits
Over 22.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Last matchup — @ TB
Jan 3, 2026
14thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
TB allows 27.5 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 35 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Mitchell Evans has gone over 22.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. TB has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 14th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (27.5 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 8.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.