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Carolina PanthersMitchell Evans
#84 · TE · 6' 5" · 258 lb · 8 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 7 of these 8 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 17.1 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutMitchell Evans isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Evans was on the field for 27 of the team's 68 offensive snaps while operating as the team's primary reserve option at tight end behind Tommy Tremble. Evans also logged 17 snaps with the special-teams unit, and he will continue to have limited offensive upside in Week 2 against the Falcons.
Verdict
vs 6.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 75% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line75supports it
Consistency16argues against it
Projection
12.8 REC YDS(×0.91 context)
L5 12.4 · L10 17.1 · med 21.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 6.6 · ceil 23.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
75%over
6 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 41%–93%Last 208 games
75%over
6 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 41%–93%Season8 games
75%over
6 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 41%–93%Situational splits
Over 6.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days71%5/7Low
Next matchup — @ CLE
Sep 27, 2026
24thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
CLE allows 17.5 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Mitchell Evans has gone over 6.5 REC YDS 6 of 8 decided times (75%) — versus 75% across the full season. CLE has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 24th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (17.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 8.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 75%.