Carolina Panthers

Mitchell Evans Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Mitchell Evans has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 7 decided games (14%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Notre Dame
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.1 REC TD · our line

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OutMitchell Evans isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Evans suffered a low-ankle sprain last Tuesday and was carted off the practice field. The tight end missed a few days of practice but appears to be back in uniform and pads. Evans will continue to compete with Ja'Tavion Sanders for the No. 2 tight end role behind Tommy Tremble.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 92% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line92supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.1 REC TD(×0.90 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 107 games

14%over

1 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–51%

Last 207 games

14%over

1 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–51%

Season7 games

14%over

1 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–51%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	14%	1/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/3Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/6Medium

Last matchup — @ TB

Jan 3, 2026

3rdof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

TB allows 0.3 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 35 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 7 games, Mitchell Evans has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 7 decided times (14%) — versus 14% across the full season. TB has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 3rd-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 14%.