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Miami DolphinsOllie Gordon II
#0 · RB · 6' 2" · 225 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 80.2 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutOllie Gordon II isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Gordon worked in the lead role as expected but found running room at a premium against a game Lions defense. Gordon has at least Sunday's carry total in four straight games, but he's now seen his rushing yardage total decline in consecutive games. Jaylen Wright's inactive status due to a quadriceps injury helped Gordon's touch floor overall, and the latter should remain the top option in Miami's ground attack in a favorable Week 10 road matchup against the Colts next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 87.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 41% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line41neutral
Consistency52neutral
Matchup100supports it
Projection
79.3 RUSH YDS(×0.98 context)
L5 80.2 · L10 80.2 · med 88.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 63.4 · ceil 100.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 105 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 205 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Season5 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 87.5Current | 60% | 3/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 87.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days75%3/4Low
Next matchup — @ IND
Nov 15, 2026
7thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
IND allows 54.3 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 15 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 5 games, Ollie Gordon II has gone over 87.5 RUSH YDS 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. IND has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 7th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (54.3 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 23.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.