Miami Dolphins

Ollie Gordon II Receptions

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Ollie Gordon II has gone over 0.5 REC in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oklahoma State
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 0.5 REC · our line

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OutOllie Gordon II isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The running back wasn't targeted in the passing game and saw some increased action after Jaylen Wright exited the game with a neck stinger. Neither back has much fantasy value outside of being an end-of-bench stash in the event something happens to De'Von Achane. The offense is bad enough that neither Gordon nor Wright would even be useful if Achane did go down.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it

Projection vs line62supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.4 REC(×0.97 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.5 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2013 games

46%over

6 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%

Season13 games

46%over

6 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	46%	6/13
	0%	0/13
	0%	0/13
	0%	0/13

Last 13 games — REC per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home40%2/5Low

Away50%4/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days42%5/12Low

Next matchup — vs KC

Sep 27, 2026

7thof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

KC allows 2.7 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Ollie Gordon II has gone over 0.5 REC 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 46% across the full season. KC has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 7th-most REC of 32 teams (2.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.