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Los Angeles ChargersOronde Gadsden
#86 · TE · 6' 5" · 236 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: Jan 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Syracuse
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 51.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutOronde Gadsden isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Gadsden broke out as a rookie fifth-round pick last season, totaling a 49-664-3 receiving line over 15 regular-season games at just 22 years old. While Gadsden remains primed to take a step forward in his development in Year 2, Los Angeles inked blocking specialist Charlie Kolar to a three-year deal at the outset of free agency, and Njoku's arrival now makes for a crowded TE room. Gadsden, a 6-foot-5, 236-pound converted wide receiver, boasts a similar frame and skill set to Njoku, a nine-year veteran and off-the-charts athlete who totaled a career-high 81-882-6 receiving line in 2023 but struggled with injuries over the last two seasons and was overtaken by rookie Harold Fannin with the Browns in 2025. New offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel relied heavily on multi-TE sets during his four-year stint with the Dolphins, and the Chargers have little proven production at WR behind Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston, so a path exists for both Gadsden and Njoku to operate as top targets for QB Justin Herbert.
Verdict
vs 43.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
38.7 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 34.2 · L10 56.1 · med 51.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 18.8 · ceil 68.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 43.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 42% | 5/12 |
Situational splits
Over 43.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days45%5/11Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Omarion Hampton out+39.8 REC YDS when he sits
Without (6g)
71.8 REC YDS
67% over 43.5
With (6g)
32.0 REC YDS
33% over 43.5
Last matchup — @ NE
Jan 12, 2026
11thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
NE allows 28.2 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 39 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Oronde Gadsden has gone over 43.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 11th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (28.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 40.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.