Los Angeles Chargers

Oronde Gadsden Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Oronde Gadsden has gone over 10.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Syracuse
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 10.4 FS · our line

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OutOronde Gadsden isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Both David Njoku (fibula) and Charlie Kolar (forearm) are expected to go on injured reserve due to injuries they suffered during Sunday's loss. Given those injuries, as well as Ladd McConkey being limited by a lingering rib injury, Gadsden should operate in an elevated role in the passing game over the coming weeks. Gadsden showed flashes of promise during the 2025 regular season, including a three-game stretch from Weeks 6 to 8, when he caught 19 passes (on 22 targets) for 309 yards and two touchdowns. The Chargers hit the road for Week 3 against the Bills, whose defense has yielded a 14-116-1 line (on 19 targets) to tight ends through two games.

Verdict

vs 10.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)73supports it

Projection vs line64supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

8.0 FS(×0.87 context)

L5 7.2 · L10 11.2 · med 10.9

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 4.6 · ceil 12.1

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2012 games

42%over

5 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%

Season12 games

42%over

5 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	58%	7/12
	58%	7/12
	58%	7/12
10.5Current	42%	5/12
	42%	5/12
	17%	2/12
	17%	2/12

Last 12 games — FS per game vs. line 10.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 10.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away33%2/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days45%5/11Low

Next matchup — @ BUF

Sep 27, 2026

13thof 32 in FS allowed to tight ends

BUF allows 6.3 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Oronde Gadsden has gone over 10.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 42% across the full season. BUF has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 13th-most FS of 32 teams (6.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.