Loading…
Kansas City ChiefsPatrick Mahomes
#15 · QB · 6' 2" · 225 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 14 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas Tech
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 259.6 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutPatrick Mahomes isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Mahomes put together a pristine final line that saw the multi-time MVP generate elite numbers while connecting with seven different targets. Two of Mahomes' most trusted options Sunday night were tight end Travis Kelce and running back Kenneth Walker, but he also recorded a total of 13 completions to wideouts Rashee Rice, Tyquan Thornton and Xavier Worthy, the latter who was also on the receiving end of one of Mahomes' three scoring strikes. The other two TD tosses went to Travis Kelce (13 yards) and Jalen Royals (one yard), and Mahomes' passing yardage total was his highest regular-season tally since Week 7 of the 2023 season. Mahomes will be teed up for another potentially rewarding performance when the Chiefs visit the winless Dolphins next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 259.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency62supports it
Projection
266.7 PASS YDS(×1.01 context)
L5 235.2 · L10 263.9 · med 268.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 189.0 · ceil 299.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 10/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 259.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 |
Situational splits
Over 259.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%5/10Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
Next matchup — @ MIA
Sep 27, 2026
15thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
MIA allows 223.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Patrick Mahomes has gone over 259.5 PASS YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIA has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 15th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (223.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 59.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 228.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
BetMGM-110
-4.5% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-110
-4.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+3.6%
Our model puts the over at 53.6% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (221.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.