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Kansas City ChiefsPatrick Mahomes
#15 · QB · 6' 2" · 225 lb · 14 games
Stats updated: Dec 14, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas Tech
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 256.2 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Patrick Mahomes's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Knee - ACL Surgery
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid shared that Mahomes had been "cleared to participate fully" to begin training camp, and seeing the 30-year-old signal-caller now taking part in team drills affirms his tremendous recovery progress. That said, it still remains to be seen whether Mahomes has been cleared for game action, be that in the preseason or Week 1 against the Broncos on Monday, Sept. 14. Mahomes has stated that his aim is to be ready for the start of the regular season.
Verdict
vs 259.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 49% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency67supports it
Projection
249.5 PASS YDS(×1.04 context)
L5 247.6 · L10 264.8 · med 268.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 210.0 · ceil 291.2
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 9/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 259.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 |
Situational splits
Over 259.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%7/13Low
With a teammate out
How this PASS YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Kenneth Walker III out+7.3 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (10g)
258.3 PASS YDS
50% over 259.5
With (4g)
251.0 PASS YDS
50% over 259.5
Last matchup — vs LAC
Dec 14, 2025
24thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
LAC allows 195.6 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 18 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Patrick Mahomes has gone over 259.5 PASS YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAC has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 24th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (195.6 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 50.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.