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Kansas City ChiefsPatrick Mahomes Completions
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Patrick Mahomes has gone over 19.5 CMP in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas Tech
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 22.0 CMP · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutPatrick Mahomes isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The two-time MVP threw a TD in each of the first three quarters, including a four-yard toss to Noah Gray in the third that gave Kansas City a 24-13 lead, but Mahomes got shut out of the end zone over the final 15 minutes as Denver staged a comeback. It was the second three-touchdown performance of the season for Mahomes as well as his second 300-yard effort, after he threw for 382 yards and three scores against the Colts in Week 2. He'll look to keep rolling in Week 9 against a Jets defense that's allowed three straight quarterbacks to produce at least three TDs against it.
Verdict
vs 19.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency52neutral
Projection
23.4 CMP(×1.03 context)
L5 21.4 · L10 22.0 · med 20.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 15.8 · ceil 28.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)
CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 19.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 19.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — vs NYJ
Nov 8, 2026
24thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
NYJ allows 18.9 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Patrick Mahomes has gone over 19.5 CMP 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. NYJ has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 24th-most CMP of 32 teams (18.9 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.
More Patrick Mahomes research
Patrick Mahomes — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Mahomes Passing TDs→
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Mahomes Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Mahomes Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.