Los Angeles Rams

Puka Nacua Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Puka Nacua has gone over 19 FS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: BYU
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 24.6 FS · PrizePicks line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

PrizePicks payout options — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.

How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins

Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).

Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.

Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.

QuestionableConfirm Puka Nacua's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Groin Soreness

Nacua was inactive for Monday's 28-6 win over the Giants due to groin soreness, an issue that kept him from practicing Friday and Saturday. Though McVay is hopeful that the star wideout's absence will be contained to one game, Nacua's status for Week 3 will be murky until he's able to get back on the practice field. While Nacua was sidelined for the Week 2 win, Davante Adams stepped in as quarterback Matthew Stafford's top target and finished with a magnificent 8-195-2 receiving line.

Verdict

vs 19 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Warm overFireFactor 43/100· model 73% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)97supports it

Projection vs line73supports it

Consistency36argues against it

Projection

24.7 FS(×1.07 context)

L5 23.2 · L10 25.5 · med 26.9

Consistency

Variable

floor 14.9 · ceil 33.5

Matchup

small sample

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Open this line on PrizePicks→

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2018 games

67%over

12 over · 6 under

Medium confidence95% CI 44%–84%

Season18 games

67%over

12 over · 6 under

Medium confidence95% CI 44%–84%

Last 18 games — FS per game vs. line 19.0. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 19 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%6/9Low

Away67%6/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days65%11/17Medium

Next matchup — @ DEN

Sep 28, 2026

18thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

DEN allows 9.6 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Puka Nacua has gone over 19 FS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 67% across the full season. DEN has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 18th-most FS of 32 teams (9.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 9.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.