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Cleveland BrownsQuinshon Judkins
#10 · RB · 6' 0" · 221 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 48.9 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutQuinshon Judkins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Judkins dominated the Browns' rushing touches, but he was repeatedly stonewalled by an aggressive Steelers front. Judkins ultimately finished with his second-lowest rushing yardage total of the season, although he did make good use of his two pass-catching opportunities. Judkins is finding running room sparse on most weeks behind Cleveland's spotty blocking, but he remains in clear possession of the lead role heading into a Week 9 road matchup against the Saints next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 43.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency15argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
52.4 RUSH YDS(×1.04 context)
L5 57.6 · L10 48.9 · med 44.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 26.6 · ceil 66.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 43.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 43.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%2/2Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — @ NO
Nov 8, 2026
3rdof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
NO allows 64.3 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Quinshon Judkins has gone over 43.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. NO has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 3rd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (64.3 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 24.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 67.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.2%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.8%
Best Over
DraftKings-112
-5.0% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-110
-4.9% EV
Model vs market (over)+12.7%
Our model puts the over at 62.9% vs the market's no-vig 50.2%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (68 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.