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Cleveland BrownsQuinshon Judkins Carries
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Quinshon Judkins has gone over 13.5 CAR in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Carries · season avg 14.4 CAR · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutQuinshon Judkins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Judkins dominated the Browns' rushing touches, but he was repeatedly stonewalled by an aggressive Steelers front. Judkins ultimately finished with his second-lowest rushing yardage total of the season, although he did make good use of his two pass-catching opportunities. Judkins is finding running room sparse on most weeks behind Cleveland's spotty blocking, but he remains in clear possession of the lead role heading into a Week 9 road matchup against the Saints next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 13.5 CARCarriesNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency69supports it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
14.9 CAR(×1.04 context)
L5 15.4 · L10 14.4 · med 14.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 12.0 · ceil 17.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)
CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 13.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 13.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%2/2Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — @ NO
Nov 8, 2026
4thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs
NO allows 13.1 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Quinshon Judkins has gone over 13.5 CAR 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. NO has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 4th-most CAR of 32 teams (13.1 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 2.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 16.5 CAR- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 51.0%
Best Over
Caesars-107
-5.2% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-115
-4.6% EV
Model vs market (over)+13.4%
Our model puts the over at 62.4% vs the market's no-vig 49.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Carries (CAR)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (16.5 CAR). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.
More Quinshon Judkins research
Quinshon Judkins — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Judkins Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Judkins Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Judkins Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Judkins Receiving Yards→
Receiving Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.